Gold Major Highs and Lows

The above chart (click to enlarge) has the gold price's major lows and highs (London fix) of the last decade since the very low of USD 252.80 on 1999-07-20.

Nevertheless, it has also been some time since the last all time high of USD 1'895.00 on 2011-09-05, and right now the gold price is closer to the last major low of USD 1'531.00 than making a new all time high. However there have been three other instances during this time frame in which it took even longer to make a next higher high (but that might go down to only two in another three weeks), and also where the draw down has been also bigger in the area of -20 to -30 %. See the details below.

Anyway, just some reading in the tea leaves, or in other words - the trend is your friend, until the bend at the end.

Major Highs

High No. 1
Date range:                   1999-10-05 - 2002-05-29
Length in business days:      669
High:                         325.50
Low:                          255.95
Draw down during this period: -21.37 %

High No. 2
Date range:                   2006-05-12 - 2008-03-17
Length in business days:      462
High:                         725.00
Low:                          560.75
Draw down during this period: -22.66 %

High No. 3
Date range:                   2008-03-17 - 2009-09-17
Length in business days:      378
High:                         1'011.25
Low:                          712.50
Draw down during this period: -29.54 %

High No. 4
Date range:                   2011-09-05 - today
Length in business days:      364
High:                         1'895.00
Low:                          1'531.00
Draw down during this period: -19.21 %

High No. 5
Date range:                   2004-12-02 - 2005-10-11
Length in business days:      214
High:                         454.20
Low:                          411.10
Draw down during this period: -9.49 %

High No. 6
Date range:                   2002-05-29 - 2003-02-05
Length in business days:      173
High:                         327.05
Low:                          302.25
Draw down during this period: -7.58 %

High No. 7
Date range:                   2004-04-01 - 2004-12-02
Length in business days:      170
High:                         427.25
Low:                          375.00
Draw down during this period: -12.23 %

High No. 8
Date range:                   2003-02-05 - 2003-10-03
Length in business days:      145
High:                         382.10
Low:                          319.90
Draw down during this period: -16.28 %

High No. 9
Date range:                   2009-12-02 - 2010-06-28
Length in business days:      139
High:                         1'212.50
Low:                          1'058.00
Draw down during this period: -12.74 %

High No. 10
Date range:                   2003-10-03 - 2004-04-01
Length in business days:      126
High:                         384.25
Low:                          370.25
Draw down during this period: -3.64 %

CHF Value

The Gold Purchasing Power of the Swiss Franc: Minus 70 % in less than 10 years.
 
Data source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Gold Line

Gold is pretty much in line for the last ten years...

Robert Fisk

Robert Fisk: Bankers are the dictators of the West

which then hand their democratic mandate and people's power to the banks and the derivative traders and the rating agencies, all three backed up by the slovenly and dishonest coterie of "experts" from America's top universities and "think tanks", who maintain the fiction that this is a crisis of globalisation rather than a massive financial con trick foisted on the voters.

The banks and the rating agencies have become the dictators of the West. Like the Mubaraks and Ben Alis, the banks believed – and still believe – they are owners of their countries. The elections which give them power have – through the gutlessness and collusion of governments – become as false as the polls to which the Arabs were forced to troop decade after decade to anoint their own national property owners. Goldman Sachs and the Royal Bank of Scotland became the Mubaraks and Ben Alis of the US and the UK, each gobbling up the people's wealth in bogus rewards and bonuses for their vicious bosses on a scale infinitely more rapacious than their greedy Arab dictator-brothers could imagine.

Deutsche Bank, Compensation and Benefits 2010: EUR 12'671'000'000

Financial Corruption

Ron Hera shows some trends in the US (which of course are of great global influence) from the past 10+ years and, unfortunately, ongoing.

By Ron Hera: How The U.S. Will Become a 3rd World Country (Part 2)

Under ordinary circumstances, monetary inflation has the effect of redistributing wealth in favor of those who receive newly created money first.  The value of money is reduced as a function of the number of currency units in the economy but recipients of newly created money can spend it before it loses value.  In a declining economy, however, the wealth redistribution effects of inflation are magnified.

...

Among other things, U.S. tax policies will erode capital formation within the remnants of the middle class, which is the engine of small business creation and the source of most American jobs.  The eventual result will be a three-tier socioeconomic structure consisting of a super rich wealthy class, a much poorer working class and a massive, politically and financially disenfranchised underclass, similar to that of a 3rd world country.

Occupy Paradeplatz Lindenhof Petition

Zürich, Lindenhof, 2011-10-27

Die Stadt Zurich möchte scheinbar das Camp der Occupy Paradeplatz Demonstranten nicht mehr auf dem Lindenhof haben.

Schade. Einen Hafenkran an der Limmat gleich unterhalb des Lindehofs möchte sie dagegen gerne installieren.



Tagi: "Die Frage ist, ob wir gestaltete Plätze oder trostlose Flächen wollen"

Dann doch lieber ein nettes Sit-In, Aktionskunst sozusagen, für eine Gute Sache, um ein bisschen auf extreme Verwerfungen in unserem Finanzsystem hinzuweisen!

Also, jeder kann ein bisschen mitspielen, man muss nicht im Zelt überwintern - heutzutage reicht ein kleines Web Formular:-).

Hier ist die Online Petition, damit könnt ihr die Stadt Zürich über eure Meinung informieren.

Grundeinkommen

Basic Income


Even the garbageman is streamlined away!

Food for thought in this video by a Swiss/German initiative.

Watch live streaming video from occupyzh at livestream.com

A version with English sub titles is here.


Via Occupy Paradeplatz (2011-10-27).

Biggest Brokest Banks

Biggest banks by assets for the business year of 2010 in CHF billion:



Broken banks according to the market as of the close of 2011-09-15 by percentage of market capitalization in relation to their assets (aeh, basically liabilities;-):



Data source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Soros on Europe

From Zero Hedge: Soros Thinks The Unthinkable About Europe

All this would cost money. Under existing arrangements no more money is to be found and no new arrangements are allowed by the German Constitutional Court decision without the authorization of the Bundestag.

[Any solution] would presuppose a radical change of heart, particularly in Germany. The German public still thinks that it has a choice about whether to support the euro or to abandon it. That is a mistake. The euro exists and the assets and liabilities of the financial system are so intermingled on the basis of a common currency that a breakdown of the euro would cause a meltdown beyond the capacity of the authorities to contain. The longer it takes for the German public to realize this, the heavier the price they and the rest of the world will have to pay.

With a comment from jeff montanye:

sacrifice democracy and freedom because disentangling euro based accounting is too complex? aww, go on, give it a try. and remember: the bondholders, stockholders and current management are the first to make a sacrifice, not the last. see how far that gets you.

2011-08-17

Der Spiegel Interview with George Soros

SPIEGEL: Is the current crisis even worse than the one in 2008?

Soros: This crisis is still the continuation of the same crisis. In 2008, the financial system collapsed and it had to be put on artificial life support. The authorities managed to save the system. But the imbalances that caused the crisis have not been removed.

...

Soros: Of course, speculation will always make a crisis worse. If there is a weak point, it will expose it. And you are right, the CDS market is a very dangerous instrument and I think it should not be allowed. I am one of the very few people who argue that the CDS is a dangerous instrument because it is so lop-sided in favor of a negative outcome.

...

Soros: The indebtedness of the US is not all that high, but if a double-dip recession was in doubt a few weeks ago, it is less in doubt now, because financial markets have a very safe way of predicting the future. They cause it. And the markets have decided that America is going to see a recession, particularly after the recent downgrade of the US by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s.

SPIEGEL: President Barack Obama has been fiercely criticized for his handling of the economy. You were one of his biggest supporters in 2008. Are you happy with his economic policy?

Soros: No, of course not. But the reality is that we have had 25 years of excesses building up in America — a combustible mix of too much credit and too much leverage. You need a long time to reverse that.

...

SPIEGEL: The $800 billion stimulus program launched by Obama did not live up to that?

Soros: Obama’s stimulus program was not big enough and it was not directed at improving infrastructure nor human capital. So it was not productive enough.

SPIEGEL: And any further stimulus is now basically a non-starter, because the conservative majority in Congress is hell-bent on preventing it.

Soros: That is what is pushing the world towards another recession, into a double dip.

...

SPIEGEL: As an investor, do you listen to the rating agencies?

Soros: Well, I do not, but many other investors do.

...

SPIEGEL: In the end, will China be the only winner in this crisis?

Soros: China, of course, has been the great winner of globalization, and if globalization collapses, the Chinese will also be among the losers. So they have a strong interest in preserving the current global system. However, in some ways, they have been just as reluctant to accept it as the Germans. Germans have been hesitant to accept responsibility for Europe, and the Chinese have been hesitant to accept responsibility for the world. But they are both being pushed into it.

Busting Banks

Bank price sales multiples for 2011-08-31, market cap and sales in CHF billion.

Data source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Platinum Gold Ratio

On 2011-08-09 the Platinum Gold ratio hit 1 to 1. As you can see in the chart below, this is happening the third time in the last 10+ years. And it hasn't gone much lower historically nor did it stay there for very long. And it makes sense. Platinum is the rarer, finer, heavier, more precious "White Gold"! Since then actually Gold has retreated a bit and Platinum moved slightly up again. We will see...

Tire Tycoons

Tire companies and their market caps in CHF billion, source Thomson DataStream, 2011-06-12:

Car Companies

Car companies and their market caps in CHF billion, source Thomson DataStream, 2011-06-05: