Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Gold in CHF: Major Highs and Lows


The above chart (click to enlarge) has the Swiss Franc's gold price's major lows and highs of the last ten years (almost) since the low of CHF 471.85 on 2003-08-05.

I made the chart recently for the standard gold price in USD, so this is a check how much the look differs in CHF.

So below are the longest lasting periods to get a next major high in CHF.

In comparison to USD, in CHF we are only in the seventh longest draught in this ten year big uptrend and with -12.52 % draw down this time not out of line compared to previous periods. However, the last two recent periods combined do look a bit flat and do add up to soon 400 business days.

BTW, the number of periods with higher highs and higher lows in CHF is almost double the ones than if looked at in USD.

But whatever, time will tell:).

Major Highs

High No. 1
Date range:                   2006-05-11 - 2008-02-21
Length in business days:      465
High:                         874.98
Low:                          695.05
Draw down during this period: -20.56 %

High No. 2
Date range:                   2004-04-02 - 2005-06-23
Length in business days:      319
High:                         544.83
Low:                          482.57
Draw down during this period: -11.43 %

High No. 3
Date range:                   2010-06-08 - 2011-08-23
Length in business days:      315
High:                         1'435.80
Low:                          1'211.12
Draw down during this period: -15.65 %

High No. 4
Date range:                   2011-09-09 - 2012-10-04
Length in business days:      266
High:                         1'640.32
Low:                          1'442.72
Draw down during this period: -12.05 %

High No. 5
Date range:                   2008-02-21 - 2009-02-20
Length in business days:      261
High:                         1'041.00
Low:                          818.89
Draw down during this period: -21.34 %

High No. 6
Date range:                   2009-02-20 - 2009-12-04
Length in business days:      205
High:                         1'172.34
Low:                          989.26
Draw down during this period: -15.62 %

High No. 7
Date range:                   2012-10-04 - today
Length in business days:      113
High:                         1'669.74
Low:                          1'460.74
Draw down during this period: -12.52 %

High No. 8
Date range:                   2006-01-09 - 2006-05-11
Length in business days:      88
High:                         693.69
Low:                          693.15
Draw down during this period: -0.08 %

High No. 9
Date range:                   2009-12-04 - 2010-03-05
Length in business days:      65
High:                         1'223.16
Low:                          1'124.61
Draw down during this period: -8.06 %

Thursday, March 07, 2013

Gold Major Highs and Lows


The above chart (click to enlarge) has the gold price's major lows and highs (London fix) of the last decade since the very low of USD 252.80 on 1999-07-20.

Nevertheless, it has also been some time since the last all time high of USD 1'895.00 on 2011-09-05, and right now the gold price is closer to the last major low of USD 1'531.00 than making a new all time high. However there have been three other instances during this time frame in which it took even longer to make a next higher high (but that might go down to only two in another three weeks), and also where the draw down has been also bigger in the area of -20 to -30 %. See the details below.

Anyway, just some reading in the tea leaves, or in other words - the trend is your friend, until the bend at the end.
Major Highs

High No. 1
Date range:                   1999-10-05 - 2002-05-29
Length in business days:      669
High:                         325.50
Low:                          255.95
Draw down during this period: -21.37 %

High No. 2
Date range:                   2006-05-12 - 2008-03-17
Length in business days:      462
High:                         725.00
Low:                          560.75
Draw down during this period: -22.66 %

High No. 3
Date range:                   2008-03-17 - 2009-09-17
Length in business days:      378
High:                         1'011.25
Low:                          712.50
Draw down during this period: -29.54 %

High No. 4
Date range:                   2011-09-05 - today
Length in business days:      364
High:                         1'895.00
Low:                          1'531.00
Draw down during this period: -19.21 %

High No. 5
Date range:                   2004-12-02 - 2005-10-11
Length in business days:      214
High:                         454.20
Low:                          411.10
Draw down during this period: -9.49 %

High No. 6
Date range:                   2002-05-29 - 2003-02-05
Length in business days:      173
High:                         327.05
Low:                          302.25
Draw down during this period: -7.58 %

High No. 7
Date range:                   2004-04-01 - 2004-12-02
Length in business days:      170
High:                         427.25
Low:                          375.00
Draw down during this period: -12.23 %

High No. 8
Date range:                   2003-02-05 - 2003-10-03
Length in business days:      145
High:                         382.10
Low:                          319.90
Draw down during this period: -16.28 %

High No. 9
Date range:                   2009-12-02 - 2010-06-28
Length in business days:      139
High:                         1'212.50
Low:                          1'058.00
Draw down during this period: -12.74 %

High No. 10
Date range:                   2003-10-03 - 2004-04-01
Length in business days:      126
High:                         384.25
Low:                          370.25
Draw down during this period: -3.64 %

Thursday, July 19, 2012

CHF Value

The Gold Purchasing Power of the Swiss Franc: Minus 70 % in less than 10 years.
 
Data source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Gold Line

FIXPM.LBM chart
Gold is pretty much in line for the last ten years...

Friday, August 12, 2011

Platinum Gold Ratio

On 2011-08-09 the Platinum Gold ratio hit 1 to 1. As you can see in the chart below, this is happening the third time in the last 10+ years. And it hasn't gone much lower historically nor did it stay there for very long. And it makes sense. Platinum is the rarer, finer, heavier, more precious "White Gold"! Since then actually Gold has retreated a bit and Platinum moved slightly up again. We will see...



XPTXAU.LBM chart

Monday, August 16, 2010

Purchasing Power

Nice graphic from DollarDaze!

Friday, August 13, 2010

Germany's Gold

The German Gold treasury is actually hosted in New York, London, and Paris. Ein Schelm, wer Böses dabei denkt.

manager magazin (in German): 3440 Tonnen mythische Fracht
Nach Angaben des "World Gold Council" betragen die offiziellen Goldreserven Deutschlands derzeit 3439,5 Tonnen. Dies entspricht 45,6 Prozent der Gesamtreserven oder einem Wert von rund 36,5 Milliarden Euro. Das Edelmetall ist in Barren à 12,5 Kilo gegossen und wird überwiegend in einem Tresor in Manhattan gelagert. Dort betreibt die US-Notenbank für 60 Nationen das mit 550.000 Barren größte Goldlager der Welt.

"Der größte Teil unserer Goldreserven wird außerhalb deutscher Grenzen, wo er entstanden ist, gehalten: bei der Fed in New York, bei der Bank of England in London und der Banque de France in Paris. In dieser Reihenfolge", sagte Kotz dem Stern.

In den 50er und 60er Jahren waren der Bundesbank dort aufgrund außenwirtschaftlicher Überschüsse Deutschlands die Goldreserven von anderen Nationen übertragen worden. Wegen der hohen Kosten für Transport und Bau neuer Tresore lehnt es die Bundesbank aus betriebswirtschaftlichen Gründen ab, die Goldbarren nach Deutschland zu schaffen.
Prof. Hans-Helmut Kotz was a member of the executive board of the Bundesbank from 2002 till 2010. The stern interview was in 2004.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Pandemic Palladium

From Kitco:


Platinum, Palladium Suffer Serious Technical Damage This Week - Kitco News, May 20 2010 10:22AM

Palladium Has Biggest Two-Day Drop in 12 Years; Platinum Falls - Businessweek, May 20 2010 3:45PM
Europe’s debt crisis and slowing growth in China may erode consumption of the metals used mostly for pollution-control devices in cars. Ford Motor Co.’s deliveries in main European markets fell 17 percent in April, the first drop in 11 months. In two days, palladium dropped 19 percent, the most since May 1998. Before this month, the price surged 36 percent in 2010.

...

“People should make sure they’re the first out of the exit and not the last,” Sorrentino said.

Prices gained for 12 straight months through April. The introduction of an exchange-traded fund backed by the metal in January boosted demand, Selkin of National Securities said. An ETF for platinum was also launched in New York this year.

“There’s very high speculative interest” in the metals, said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc in London. “With risk as high as it has been, we expect to see some liquidation.”
Last not least, Jesse on Gold options/futures:
Gold and silver spot was holding the exact levels where I would have expected them to find something to hang on. Let's see stocks go into option expiration tomorrow. There are a lot of calls that are going to be expiring worthless. I wonder if they will try and jam the puts for a little whipsaw action.

I will be a little surprised if they let gold up for air before its own expiration next week.
And:
The market is rallying sharply now, and if it can retake the old support, now resistance, around 1105 it has a good chance of setting a new uptrend back to the top of the channel. This could just be a bounce. I was looking at some of the indicators last night, and they were at record oversold levels going back at least four years, including the crash.

Was all this a trading gambit mixed with petulance over the financial reform package? In a normal market I would say "nonsense." But this market is thin, like a Ponzi scheme, driven by high frequency trading and artificial liquidity. The few genuine investors are being chased and shot down like the human beings in The Planet of the Apes. The Wall Street gorillas have all the horses, nets and rifles, courtesy of the government, the regulators, and the Fed.

The smackdown in gold and silver ahead of option expiration next week, and the miners' option expiration today, was some of the most blatant and heavy handed market manipulation I have seen in a long time.

The Open Interest on the June Gold contract on May 20 increased from 216,811 to a whopping 273,541 contracts on a sharp decrease in price. This was some viciously aggressive short selling intended solely to drive down price, taking the miners down and out of the hands of the public, and weakening the resolve of the Comex gold bulls. There were roughly 18,000 call options sitting at Gold 1200 earlier this week representing 18 million ounces of gold.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Gold Benchmark

Indeed, it grows very little each year, very little is consumed each year. Difficult to fake, popular and appreciated not only by woman... What better benchmark do you know?

So instead of stating the price of gold in different currencies, it makes much more sense to state everything else in gold units.

So did Robert Rethfeld: Bezugsgröße Gold

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Euro STOXX 50 in Gold OZ

With talk recently about Gold being on an all time high denominated in Euro, let's have a look at the most important European index, the Euro STOXX 50: in Gold troy ounces!

(click on image for a bigger version)


What a wonderful downward trend for the Euro STOXX 50 in Gold. Or could we call it deflation?! And maybe it's inflation for Gold in terms of Euro!? Inflation - Deflation: is it just a matter of perspective?

Source Telekurs iD.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Gold

From the World Gold Council (a bunch of gold mining corporations):
How much gold has been mined?
The best estimates available suggest that the total volume of gold ever mined up to the end of 2009 was approximately 165'000 tonnes, of which around 65% has been mined since 1950.

How much gold is still underground?
The major gold producers increased their reported reserves to 719.7 million oz or over 22,000 tonnes at the end of 2005, according to Metals Economics Group. Assuming a 10% recovery loss when the ore is extracted, this would amount to 14 years of gold production at 2005's level. In practice the amount of known resources remains fairly constant over time since the results of new exploration finds replace those resources that are exploited.

What is the average cost of mining per ounce?
The average cost of replacing and producing an ounce of gold rose to $428/oz in 2005, a ten-year high, according to Metals Economics Group, based on a study of 18 major gold producing companies. However, costs vary widely between companies and the mines themselves.

How big is a tonne of gold?
Gold is traditionally weighed in Troy Ounces (31.1035 grammes). With the density of gold at 19.32 g/cm3, a troy ounce of gold would have a volume of 1.61 cm3. A metric tonne (equals 1,000kg = 32,150.72 troy ounces) of gold would therefore have a volume of 51,762 cm3 (i.e. 1.61 x 32,150.72), which would be equivalent to a cube of side 37.27cm (Approx. 1' 3'').

Where does the word Gold come from?
The word gold appears to be derived from the Indo-European root 'yellow', reflecting one of the most obvious properties of gold. This is reflected in the similarities of the word gold in various languages: Gold (English), Gold(German), Guld (Danish), Gulden (Dutch), Goud (Afrikaans), Gull (Norwegian) and Kulta (Finnish).
With today's gold price of USD 1082.00 the total "market capitalization" of gold is:

USD 5'739'872'784'897.15

USD 5.7 trillion - 9.5% of 2008 world GDP or half of the currently estimated US bailout amount:-)


And what's the annual mining production?

The CRB Commoditiy Yearbook 2008 states for 2005:
2'470 t (record high was actually 1999/2000 with 2'570 t)
= 79.41 million ozt (82.6 million ozt)
= USD 85'924'156'234.52
= USD 85.9 billion (USD 89.4 billion)
So total world gold amount is equivalent of 66.8 years of 2008 world gold production.
P.S. 1 ozt = 31.1034768 g


And how much gold is there for any human being?

165'000'000'000 g / 6'692'030'277 people = 24.66 g / person (or 80% of a single troy once)


Here is an interesting back of the envelope calculation (thought they estimate double the amount of the WGC number and maybe make a too low assumption of today's gold production, nevertheless interesting):

If you took all of the gold in the world and put it in one place how much would there be?


And a National Geographic article about gold, mining, and its social impact:
In 2007 demand outstripped mine production by 59 percent.
...
According to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), there are between 10 million and 15 million so-called artisanal miners around the world, from Mongolia to Brazil. Employing crude methods that have hardly changed in centuries, they produce about 25 percent of the world's gold and support a total of 100 million people. It's a vital activity for these people—and deadly too.
So annually: 80 mio ozt * 25% = 20 mio ozt; for lets say 10 mio workers this results in 2 ozt per worker, average per worker USD 2'000 market value - thought not what they get:
On school holidays, Rosemery sometimes helps her mother on the mountain. It is child labor, perhaps, but for a girl whose family is living hand to mouth, it also qualifies as her proudest achievement. "Last year I found two grams of gold," Rosemery says, almost giddily. "It was enough to buy my schoolbooks and uniform.
And furthermore:
The deadly effects of mercury are equally hazardous to small-scale miners. Most use mercury to separate gold from rock, spreading poison in both gas and liquid forms. UNIDO estimates that one-third of all mercury released by humans into the environment comes from artisanal gold mining.
...

View Mine Sites in a larger map
At the other end of the spectrum are vast, open-pit mines run by the world's largest mining companies. Using armadas of supersize machines, these big-footprint mines produce three-quarters of the world's gold. They can also bring jobs, technologies, and development to forgotten frontiers. Gold mining, however, generates more waste per ounce than any other metal, and the mines' mind-bending disparities of scale show why: These gashes in the Earth are so massive they can be seen from space, yet the particles being mined in them are so microscopic that, in many cases, more than 200 could fit on the head of a pin. Even at showcase mines, such as Newmont Mining Corporation's Batu Hijau operation in eastern Indonesia, where $600 million has been spent to mitigate the environmental impact, there is no avoiding the brutal calculus of gold mining. Extracting a single ounce of gold there—the amount in a typical wedding ring—requires the removal of more than 250 tons of rock and ore.
...
Up the road there is a basketball gymnasium that Newmont staffers jokingly refer to as "the second home of the Denver Nuggets."

The name is fitting for a Colorado-based gold-mining company, though there are no nuggets here. And therein lies the problem. Higher prices and advanced techniques enable companies to profitably mine microscopic flecks of gold; to separate gold and copper from rock at Batu Hijau, Newmont uses a finely tuned flotation technology that is nontoxic, unlike the potentially toxic cyanide "heap leaching" the company uses in some of its other mines. Even so, no technology can make the massive waste generated by mining magically disappear. It takes less than 16 hours to accumulate more tons of waste here than all of the tons of gold mined in human history. The waste comes in two forms: discarded rock, which is piled into flat-topped mountains spread across what used to be pristine rain forest, and tailings, the effluent from chemical processing that Newmont pipes to the bottom of the sea.

This method of "submarine tailings disposal" is effectively banned in most developed countries because of the damage the metal-heavy waste can do to the ocean environment, and Newmont practices it nowhere but in Indonesia. Four years ago an Indonesian court brought criminal charges against a Newmont subsidiary—even jailing five of its employees for a month—for pumping pollutants into the sea near its now defunct Buyat Bay mine on the island of Sulawesi. Newmont was acquitted of all charges in 2007. Despite critics' claims that the court caved in to the mining industry, Newmont defends its reliance on ocean dumping at Batu Hijau. "Land disposal would be cheaper but more damaging to the environment," argues Rachmat Makkasau, Batu Hijau's senior process manager. The tailings at Batu Hijau are released 2.1 miles offshore at a depth of 400 feet, above a steep drop-off that carries the waste down more than 10,000 feet. "We closely monitor the quality of the tailings, pipes, and seabed," says Makkasau. "At that depth, we are only affecting some 'sea insects.'"
...
Nowhere is the gold obsession more culturally entrenched than it is in India. Per capita income in this country of a billion people is $2,700, but it has been the world's runaway leader in gold demand for several decades. In 2007, India consumed 773.6 tons of gold, about 20 percent of the world gold market and more than double that purchased by either of its closest followers, China (363.3 tons) and the U.S. (278.1 tons). India produces very little gold of its own, but its citizens have hoarded up to 18,000 tons of the yellow metal—more than 40 times the amount held in the country's central bank.

India's fixation stems not simply from a love of extravagance or the rising prosperity of an emerging middle class. For Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, and Christians alike, gold plays a central role at nearly every turning point in life—most of all when a couple marries. There are some ten million weddings in India every year, and in all but a few, gold is crucial both to the spectacle and to the culturally freighted transaction between families and generations. "It's written into our DNA," says K. A. Babu, a manager at the Alapatt jewelry store in the southwestern city of Cochin. "Gold equals good fortune."

This equation manifests itself most palpably during the springtime festival of Akshaya Tritiya, considered the most auspicious day to buy gold on the Hindu calendar. The quantity of gold jewelry Indians purchase on this day—49 tons in 2008—so exceeds the amount bought on any other day of the year throughout the world that it often nudges gold prices higher.

View Larger Map
Throughout the year, though, the epicenter of gold consumption is Kerala, a relatively prosperous state on India's southern tip that claims just 3 percent of the country's population but 7 to 8 percent of its gold market. It's an unusual distinction for a region that has one of the world's only democratically elected Marxist governments, but it is rooted in history. A key port in the global spice trade, Kerala gained an early exposure to gold, from the Romans who offered coins in exchange for pepper, cardamom, and cinnamon to subsequent waves of colonizers, the Portuguese, Dutch, English. But local historians say it was the region's revolt against the Hindu caste system (before which the lowest castes were allowed to adorn themselves only with polished stones and bones), and the mass conversion to Christianity and Islam that followed, that turned gold into something more than commerce: a powerful symbol of independence and upward mobility.
...
By themselves, none of these ceremonies captures how deeply gold is ingrained in the Indian economy. "Gold is the basis of our financial system," says Babu, the jewelry store manager. "People see it as the best form of security, and nothing else lets you get cash as quickly." Hoarding gold as an intergenerational family nest egg is an ancient tradition in India. So, too, is pawning gold jewelry for emergency loans—and then buying it back. Commercial banks still offer the service, after their attempt to stop it in the 1990s resulted in riots and suicides by debt-laden clients and a government command to continue the practice.

Many farmers in Kerala, however, prefer the speed and easy access of "private financiers" like George Varghese, who operates out of his home three hours south of Cochin. A balding man in his 70s, Varghese says he handles around half a million dollars in pawned gold a month, even more during harvest and wedding seasons. It's almost a perfect business, for even with interest rates that can reach one percent a day on short-term loans, very few people default. No Indian wants to let go of their gold. "Even when gold hit $1,000 an ounce, nobody sold their jewelry or coins," says Varghese. "This is their nest egg, and they trust it to keep growing."
...
In small-scale gold mining, UNIDO estimates, two to five grams of mercury are released into the environment for every gram of gold recovered—a staggering statistic, given that mercury poisoning can cause severe damage to the nervous system and all major organs. According to Peru­vian environmentalists, the mercury released at La Rinconada and the nearby mining town of Ananea is contaminating rivers and lakes down to the coast of Lake Titicaca, more than a hundred miles away.

View Larger Map

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Precious Metals Trends

Google Precious Metals Trends


Search trend factors as of 2009-11-24:
Gold      1.0
Silver 0.57
Platinum 0.18
Palladium 0.04
Rodium 0.0